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we saw wut u did thar, paramount
The Estimates Are In 
4th-Jul-2010 10:40 pm
Well the estimated take from the holiday weekend are in from Box Office Mojo. The opening weekend take is $40 million and it goes up to $57 million if you add in the premiere and Thursday take.

What does that mean? Well to put things in context, the Adam Sandler movie "The Grown Ups" took in $40 million it's opening weekend and that's just with a Friday-Sunday non-holiday opening. And movies with comparable budgets like "Iron Man" and "Spider-Man" had weekend takes of $90-100 million.

"TLA" also had an almost 40% drop in interest from Saturday to Sunday. That could be because of the festivities that are going on for the 4th of July, but considering you have people going back to work on Monday, most of the people who wanted to see it probably have and two big name moves coming out this week, I expect to see the drop go down even more.

It's out of 'bomb' territory, but it also isn't in 'blockbuster' territory either. It has a ton of negative press both from critics and fans and has essentially under preformed for a film that was being touted as a tent pole film. It's in the same realm as "Chronicles of Narnia" which was well reviewed with generally well received by fans/audience and which got a sequel, but was dropped by it's main distributer (Disney) due to what they considered low performance. It's also in the same range as "Batman and Robin" which was also savaged by critics and fans and who's director was directly blamed for halting any superhero movies being made in Hollywood and who's career hasn't recovered because of it.

We know it has to make $280 mil to profit and we also know that they have to make $580 mil before they can reach that profit because they have to give the theater's their take (ie, overall earned is $57 mil, but that's before the theater's take their cut).

5th-Jul-2010 02:58 am (UTC)
The studio will say this movie is still "on track" and they didn't expect a huge return because the property is new etc. etc. If the movie does well overseas (which can be more forgiving of these things) then the movie will be profitable in the long run.
5th-Jul-2010 03:02 am (UTC)
Hmmm...I'm not entirely sure where this may place the movie's sequel potential.

Though there is a huge backlash from critics and fans alike, there are still quite a few fans I see saying that the movie wasn't too bad and that they would still look out for a sequel, in the hopes that it'll be better. How this would translate to Paramount, I have no idea. However, once you lose a majority of the original fanbase, they may be hardpressed to get it back. From these estimates though, I would gather that even with worldwide ticket and DVD sales factored in, it may just break even, but will be nowhere near the blockbuster, tent pole smash they were hoping for.
5th-Jul-2010 03:13 am (UTC)
Not to mention a lot of the fans who kinda want to see a sequel, don't want to see M Night directing it. His name on it could be a sequel kiss of death.
5th-Jul-2010 03:09 am (UTC)
I don't think they're going to make it. I used to work at a theater, and once the interest drops, it doesnt keep coming back. Also, if a movie isnt doing good, they will reduce the theaters its playing in. If the movie was playing in three theaters, they will move it to one, and will be the smallest one available, since they know it wont have a lot of people coming in. The movies that make the most profit get more theaters, and they get extra time playing too. Avatar(james cameron) recieved an extra month because the profits were so good.
5th-Jul-2010 03:12 am (UTC)
That I did notice. When I went to the theater this weekend, "TLA" had less showings for it then "Toy Story" or "Twilight" did even though they were in a comparable number of theaters (well..."Twilight" had more).
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5th-Jul-2010 04:21 am (UTC)
No kidding. Some people with dwindling hope have tried to claim "It'll be huge in Asia!" but... I really can't see "white kids in an Asian fantasy world failing at martial arts" being a big draw when they have, you know, their own movie industry with Asian-based fantasy movies, and plenty of incredibly martial arts to boot.
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5th-Jul-2010 03:24 am (UTC)
The sad and plain truth of it is, Americans suffer the most wretched fodder when they just want a day at the movies. Even if mediocre or crap, they go. Bored, looking for "something to do," loving 3D even when it's pointless and costly, and escape escape escape. So I predict it'll make enough in the longrun to justify it's pointless and offensive existence, like so many before it and so many to come. I won't be going to see it, but formal boycott? It just so rarely works in this culture with this sort of thing.

What I hope is that if the racebending won't hit him, the crap reviews will and maybe we'll get new actors/director for sequels. But that's a forlorn hope, I'm sure.
5th-Jul-2010 05:14 am (UTC)
I'm curious to see what kind of drop it'll have on its second week. Fans were dead set on seeing the movie. No review was going to deter them but I can't imagine anyone submitting themselves through more viewings. Even people who didn't care about the casting are downright furious as to how it was butchered. So the only people left willing to see TLA are idk, those who only care about special effects.
5th-Jul-2010 06:19 am (UTC)
As I said in the other thread, I expect high drops on monday around at least 50%. For the rest of it's run I suppose it'll creep around the bottom of the movie top ten with single digit millions. I doubt that it'll ever get past the $10million mark again for a single day.

Regarding the international release I would like to see our international members having an eye or two on the local press.

For Germany the news that TLA is SO Bad It's Horrible is slowly spreading through various movie blogs as far as I can tell. My experience from the past is that movies that to poorly in the US are most likely not starting with a full blown distribution here. Those movies mostly just show in the big theatres while small ones just show them for a very short time or skip them completely. In some cases the release is also completely cancelled - but since they are already advertising it I doubt they'll do that. (Though in the unlikely case that it will be cancelled I'll squee with joy and let you know immediately! ;'D)
5th-Jul-2010 06:30 am (UTC)

...Batman Forever still sucked though.
5th-Jul-2010 06:40 am (UTC)
What's the saying? A fault confessed is half redressed. XD

I kinda forgive him cause this way they couldn't continue with campy!Batman and now we have Nolan's movies. \o/
5th-Jul-2010 06:32 pm (UTC)
This is just repeating some information, but today on Yahoo there was an article that mentioned Airbender. It said this:

The weekend's other new wide release, Paramount's "The Last Airbender," opened well with $40.7 million to finish at No. 2 for the three-day weekend. The movie took in $53.2 million since debuting Thursday.

Directed by M. Night Shyamalan ("The Sixth Sense"), "The Last Airbender" is based on the cartoon series about a youth with mythical powers who can unite four warring nations.

"The Last Airbender" found a solid audience despite dreadful reviews from critics, who found the plot muddled and the dialogue stilted.

The article also talked a lot about how Eclipse fell sharply at the box office within the past few days, but that it still managed to reach blockbuster status ($161 million in 5 days) and will most likely be able to recover from its weekend losses. It said Airbender did well despite all the bad press, but I'm wondering how sharply it fell at the box office...

I highly doubt that people will be lining up for a repeat viewing (since most people seemed to hate it) and if anyone who would see it (ex: the hardcore fans, kids, etc.) hasn't done so already. Throw in all the bad word of mouth and I'm not sure who else would want to bother seeing it other than the 3D loving crowd (though again, I'm sure the bad word of mouth about the 3D will convince a good number of them not to waste their money) and folks who want to see how bad it is for themselves.
5th-Jul-2010 06:41 pm (UTC)
It's going to be interesting to see if Paramount shares the view that $40 mil is a "solid" finish for something that was supposed to bring in "Iron Man 2" numbers.
5th-Jul-2010 06:58 pm (UTC)
5th-Jul-2010 08:24 pm (UTC)
Since Monday is predicted to be as big a day for moviegoers as Sunday the estimate is around $70 million. Dammit. Hopefully after today this will plummet.
6th-Jul-2010 12:29 am (UTC)
I would imagine so. It's hard enough for theaters to get people in mid week. On the upside, the official opening weekend total going around now is in the $40 mil range. Far below a tent pole. And even if you take the $70 mil average, that's over a week, plus a premiere night. Still under preforming for a tent pole
5th-Jul-2010 09:04 pm (UTC)

about 10:30 into this, the guy puts up the Hero/Hero/Hero/Villain graphic from racebending.com. This dude is ANGRY XD
5th-Jul-2010 09:07 pm (UTC)
whoops... shoulda finished watching it first :-/

he quickly goes into "don't hate it for this, hate it because it's a horrible movie" move... but at least the graphic got play.
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